Download file 469 KB Texto completo en español More of: Alexander  Galetovic Humberto Soto Juan Carlos Olmedo

This paper puts forward three indicators to quantify the risk of a deficit in the Central Interconnected Grid System (SIC): (a) the likelihood of a deficit occurring in each month of the next two hydrological cycles; (b) simulations predicting the monthly deficit if two exceptionally dry hydrological years succeed each other; and (c) the additional transitory capacity that would eliminate the deficit resulting from two consecutive extremely dry hydrological seasons.
These indicators were constructed using the Omsic model, which is used to operate the Central Interconnected Grid System (SIC). The authors show how the methodology can be used to evaluate the chances of a deficit in electric power supply during the next two years. For example, an evaluation of this type suggests that the risk of a further electric power crisis in 2001 was small, contrary to the alarming predictions that circulated last year.