Download file 352 KB Texto completo en español More of: Geoffrey Rothwell

This paper evaluates the option of being able to begin construction on a first nuclear power plant in Chile in 2020. This implies that by 2020 (1) an appropriate Chilean regulatory authority has issued a site license and a construction permit, has the expertise to issue an operating permit, and can regulate nuclear plant operations and nuclear fuel management, (2) an owner-operator and financing has been committed, and (3) a system of handling fresh and spent nuclear fuel has been specified. At that time the net present value of the project can be calculated and compared with competing alternatives. Until that time, funds must be spent on regulatory and physical infrastructure preparation. Under this paper’s assumptions and economic modeling, Chile, or any country contemplating a first nuclear power plant, should be willing to invest some positive amount in this preparation, even though a nuclear power plant might never be built. The benefits of having the nuclear option arise from the uncertainty in the establishment and form of international carbon dioxide controls, which would greatly increase the cost of fossil fuels. Therefore, the greater the uncertainty in knowing the environmentally and socially optimal cost, or market price, of carbon dioxide, the greater the value in having the option of building carbon-free nuclear power plants. In conclusion, the most cost effective investment at this time could be the establishment of an on-going effort to assess (for example, through quarterly polling) whether the Chilean public is ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a Chilean nuclear power program.